Dinasti Politik dan Politik Uang Sebagai Pemicu Kerawanan Pemilu
Studi Komparatif di Kabupaten Probolinggo dan Tuban, Jawa Timur
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37329/ganaya.v9i3.5657Keywords:
Money Politics, Political Dynasty, Level of Election VulnerabilityAbstract
This study aims to analyze the comparative of election vulnerability level in Tuban and Probolinggo Regencies, East Java in 2024. The selection of Probolinggo and Tuban Regencies as representatives of regencies with the lowest and highest Vulnerability Index in East Java according to the Election Supervisory Agency (Bawaslu). This study uses a quantitative research method by deriving research variables from the Election Vulnerability Index concept from Bawaslu. Based on this concept, it is derived into a variable of Election Vulnerability Level with a measurement of four dimensions, namely the socio-political context, elections administration, contestation, and political participation. The data collection technique carried out through interviews using questionnaires, observation and document data. Determination of the number of respondents using the Slovin formula of 100 respondents taken simple randomly from the voter list in each district. The results of the study show that Probolinggo Regency exhibits a moderate level of election vulnerability higher than Tuban Regency, particularly regarding indicators of power relations, political dynasties, mobilization and money politics, conversely, Tuban Regency predominantly into the low vulnerability category. This is also supported by results of the Mann-Whitney U statistical test of the election vulnerability level between the two regencies with Z analysis =-3,3 and Sig=0,001, using an alpha of 0,05, it can be concluded that there is a difference in the level of election vulnerability level between Tuban and Probolinggo Regencies. This study assert that a difference from the results of the Election Vulnerability Index conducted by Bawaslu in 2022. This is due to rapidly changing political dynamics and the influence of socio-political factors.
References
Abramovitz, M., Sherraden, M., Hill, K., Smith, T. R., Lewis, B., & Mizrahi, T. (2019). Voting is Social Work: Voices From the National Social Work Voter Mobilization Campaign. Journal of Social Work Education, 55(4), 626-644.
Anam, M. S., Prayitno, S., & Musyafa’ah, N. L. (2023). Peran Komisi Pemilihan Umum Kabupaten Tuban Pada Pemilihan Kepala Daerah Tahun 2020. Sosio Yustisia: Jurnal Hukum Dan Perubahan Sosial, 3(1), 96-116.
Andriyani, L., Murod, M., Sulastri, E., Gunanto, D., Sahrul, M., & Andiani, D. (2021). Relasi Kuasa Elit Lokal Dan Pemerintah Lokal Dalam Penangan Konflik Sosial Paska Pilkada Dalam Mendukung Ketahanan Sosial. Jurnal Ketahanan Nasional, 27(1), 39-64
Anwar, A. H. (2019). Peran Bawaslu Dalam Penegakan Hukum dan Keadilan Pemilu. Voice Justisia: Jurnal Hukum dan Keadilan, 3(2), 73-89.
Aspinall, E., & Berenschot, W. (2019). Democracy for Sale: Elections, Clientelism, and the State in Indonesia. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
Badan Pengawas Pemilu. (2020). Indeks Kerawanan Pemilu (IKP) Pilkada Serentak 2020.
Endang, M., Suyuti, N., Bahtiar, B., Hussein, M. N., & Hasdin, H. (2021). Demokrasi Yang Terjual: Klientelisme-Kuasa & Politik Patronase dalam Demokrasi Elektoral. Kupang: Tangguh Denara Jaya Publisher.
Fachrudin, A. (2019). Kerawanan Pemungutan dan Perhitungan Suara di Pemilu 2019. Jurnal Demokrasi, 77.
Fossati, D., Aspinall, E., Muhtadi, B., & Warburton, E. (2020). Ideological Representation In Clientelistic Democracies: The Indonesian Case. Electoral Studies, 63, 1-12.
Gorrell, G., Bakir, M. E., Roberts, I., Greenwood, M. A., & Bontcheva, K. (2020). Online Abuse Toward Candidates During The UK General Election 2019: Working Paper. White Rose Research Online, 1-21.
Hidayat, A. (2020). Manfaat Pelaksanaan Pemilu Untuk Kesejahteraan Masyarakat. Politicon: Jurnal Ilmu Politik, 2(1), 72-85.
Huda, M. (2025). Sirkulasi Modal Sosial dalam Politik Elektoral: Strategi Ketahanan Mukhammad Misbakhun sebagai Caleg Petahanan. Brawijaya: Journal of Social Science, 5(1), 48-69.
Ikmal, N. M. (2018). Patronase Politik Dalam Pemerintah Lokal (Studi Kekuatan Local Strongman Di Kabupaten Probolinggo. Doctoral dissertation, Universitas Airlangga.
Ilhami, D., Al-Khanif, A. K., & Soetijono, I. R. (2025). Pengaruh Politik Dinasti di Kabupaten Probolinggo Terhadap Sistem Demokrasi Dalam Menjalankan Asas Keterbukaan: The Influence of Dynasty Politics in Probolinggo Regency on the Democracy System in Implementing the Principle of Openness. Constitution Journal, 4(2), 191-210.
Irawatiningrum, S., & Rohid, N. (2021). Politik Uang Dan Pemilu Serentak 2019 Di Tuban. Jurnal Ilmiah Muqoddimah: Jurnal Ilmu Sosial, Politik Dan Hummanioramaniora, 5(2), 353-361.
Jailani, A., Astuti, V. S., & Devi, N. U. K. (2025). Pengaruh Identitas Agama Terhadap Keberpihakan Pemilih Pada Kandidat Bupati Kabupaten Probolinggo Tahun 2024. JUPEIS: Jurnal Pendidikan Dan Ilmu Sosial, 4(3), 346-354.
Jamil, D., Maksum, A., Sopyan, A. R., & Huda, A. (2024). Pelembagaan Partai Politik: Studi Kasus Partai Koalisi Incumbent Dalam Perebutan Kekuasaan Di Pilkada. Jurnal Dinamika: Wacana Mahasiswa Berparadigma, 5(1), 45-62.
Kusuma, L. S., Zulhadi, Z., Junaidi, J., & Subandi, A. (2019). Peran Badan Pengawas Pemilu Dalam Penegakan Hukum Pemilu. Jurnal Ulul Albab, 23(2), 110-116.
Muhtadi, B. (2021). Kuasa Uang: Politik Uang Dalam Pemilu Pasca-Orde Baru. Jakarta: Kepustakaan Populer Gramedia.
Norris, P. (2014). Why Electoral Integrity Matters. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Norris, P. (2022). In Praise of Skepticism: Trust but Verify. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Onapajo, H., & Babalola, D. (2020). Nigeria’s 2019 General Elections A Shattered Hope? The Round Table, 109(4), 363-367.
Orlov, V. (2016). The Problem of Election Administration Professionalization in Modern Public Administration in Ukraine. Sociological Studios, 2(9), 83-87.
Robison, R., & Hadiz, V. R. (2004). Reorganising Power in Indonesia: The Politics of Oligarchy in an Age of Markets. London: Routledge.
Rolis, M. I. (2012). Performance Partai Politik Dalam Panggung Pilkada Jawa Timur. Jurnal Review Politik, 2(1), 58-79.
Simón, P. (2022). The Multiple Spanish Elections of April and May 2019: The Impact of Territorial and Left-right Polarisation. South European Society and Politics, 25(1), 1-31.
Siregar, M., Arifin, M., & Darsono, D. (2021). Pengawasan Tahapan Pilkada Serentak Tahun 2020 Pada Masa Pandemi Covid-19 di Kabupaten Tuban. Jurnal Ilmu Sosial Dan Ilmu Politik, 1(2), 76-86.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Siti Kholifah, Ucca Arawindha, Indhar Wahyu Wiraharjo, Mohammad Fajar Shodiq Ramadlan, Siti Zurinani (Author)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
An author who publishes in the Ganaya : Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Humaniora agrees to the following terms:
- Author retains the copyright and grants the journal the right of first publication of the work simultaneously licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal
- Author is able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book) with the acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Author is permitted and encouraged to post his/her work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of the published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
Read more about the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 Licence here: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/.
